Commitments Under The Paris AgreementApril 9, 2021 12:09 am
While the Paris Agreement ultimately aims to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, many studies evaluating the voluntary commitments of some countries in Paris show that the cumulative effect of these emission reductions will not be significant enough to keep temperatures below that ceiling. Indeed, the targets set by the target countries should limit the future increase in temperature between 2.7 and 3.7 degrees Celsius. At the same time, recent assessments of countries` developments in the framework of their climate targets in Paris indicate that some countries are already not meeting their commitments. The agreement stated that it would only enter into force (and therefore fully effective) if 55 countries that produce at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions (according to a list drawn up in 2015)  ratify, accept, approve or adhere to the agreement.   On April 1, 2016, the United States and China, which together account for nearly 40% of global emissions, issued a joint statement confirming that the two countries would sign the Paris climate agreement.  175 contracting parties (174 states and the European Union) signed the agreement on the first day of its signing.   On the same day, more than 20 countries announced plans to join the accession as soon as possible in 2016. The ratification by the European Union has achieved a sufficient number of contracting parties to enter into force on 4 November 2016. Finally, instead of giving China and India a passport to pollution, as Trump asserts, the pact is the first time these two major developing countries have agreed on concrete and ambitious climate commitments. The two countries, which are already poised to be world leaders in renewable energy, have made considerable progress in achieving their Paris goals. And since Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the agreement, the Chinese and Indian leaders have reaffirmed their commitment and continued to implement domestic policies to achieve their goals. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), temperatures are expected to rise by 3.2oC by the end of the 21st century, based solely on the current climate commitments of the Paris Agreement. To limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual emissions must be below 25 Gigaton (Gt) by 2030.
With the current commitments of November 2019, emissions by 2030 will be 56 Gt CO2e, twice the environmental target. To limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, an annual reduction in emissions of 7.6% is needed between 2020 and 2030. The four main emitters (China, the United States, the EU-27 and India) have contributed more than 55% of total emissions over the past decade, excluding emissions due to land use changes such as deforestation. China`s emissions increased by 1.6% in 2018 to a peak of 13.7 Gt CO2 equivalent. U.S. emissions account for 13% of global emissions and emissions have increased by 2.5% in 2018. EU emissions, which account for 8.5% of global emissions, have fallen by 1% per year over the past decade.